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One man’s poison is another man’s poison
The war in Ukraine will have no winners. Estimates from the internet: the EU could lose 1% of GDP or Euro 175 billion (this number is probably low…
Jul 25, 2022
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Leon Tsirlin
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One man’s poison is another man’s poison
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Whodunit?
Who is responsible for record-high oil prices and record-high inflation? President Biden calls it “Putin’s price hike” and blames oil companies for…
Jul 6, 2022
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Leon Tsirlin
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Whodunit?
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June 2022
The law of anticipated consequences…
What is the point of sanctioning Russia? The Law of anticipated consequences states that “most actions are taken to achieve anticipated, rather than…
Jun 14, 2022
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Leon Tsirlin
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The law of anticipated consequences…
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May 2022
So many worlds, so much to do…
Too many goals…can they be achieved, and how soon? I think that political leaders in the US and the EU have a lot on their plate: contain inflation…
May 31, 2022
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Leon Tsirlin
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So many worlds, so much to do…
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“There never was a good war or a bad peace”. (Benjamin Franklin, 1783)
Outlook: Reducing Demand in a period of Tight Commodity Supply Are we heading to a global recession? I think that the consensus view that the Global…
May 17, 2022
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Leon Tsirlin
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“There never was a good war or a bad peace”. (Benjamin Franklin, 1783)
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Outlook: interest rates keep going up…
Interest rates are moving up, and equity investors are responding in a predictable way by selling highly valued stocks and buying “cheaper” stocks…
May 3, 2022
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Leon Tsirlin
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Outlook: interest rates keep going up…
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April 2022
Outlook: It is a long way to go…
I think that every equity strategist who wanted to publish a note on the impending economic slowdown has done so by now. The stock market however keeps…
Apr 4, 2022
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Leon Tsirlin
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Outlook: It is a long way to go…
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March 2022
Macro Outlook: Will there be peace for our time?
It would be logical to expect that negative shocks from spiking commodity prices, higher interest rates and war-related headlines should slow the…
Mar 28, 2022
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Leon Tsirlin
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Macro Outlook: Will there be peace for our time?
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History does not repeat itself
Macro Outlook: History does not repeat itself The Crimean war of 1853 was the previous large-scale military conflict between Russia and the West…
Mar 21, 2022
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Leon Tsirlin
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History does not repeat itself
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Macro Outlook: The quest for kosher oil and pareve gas
Despite the ubiquitous and always-on internet it is next to impossible to understand the true situation on the ground in Ukraine: too much censorship…
Mar 14, 2022
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Leon Tsirlin
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Macro Outlook: The quest for kosher oil and pareve gas
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Macro Outlook: The new Iron Curtain will be more expensive than the old one…
The sanctions imposed on Russia are inflationary. They will disrupt availability of certain food items, spare parts, electronics, and household items…
Mar 6, 2022
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Leon Tsirlin
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Macro Outlook: The new Iron Curtain will be more expensive than the old one…
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February 2022
Macro Outlook: Looking Further East
The conflict in Ukraine has taken the worst possible turn and resembles the invasion of Czechoslovakia by the USSR in 1968. If the history were to…
Feb 27, 2022
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Leon Tsirlin
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Macro Outlook: Looking Further East
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