The war in Ukraine will have no winners. Estimates from the internet: the EU could lose 1% of GDP or Euro 175 billion (this number is probably low because the cost of hosting/supporting 6-7 million of Ukrainian refuges can be as high as Euro 100billion in the first year of the war) , Russia stands to lose 10% of GDP or USD 150 billion, Ukraine 25% of GDP or USD 50 billion, and the US 0.1% of GDP or USD 20 billion, for a combined total loss of USD 395 billion, excluding the cost of rebuilding Ukrainian infrastructure. Not even the environment/environmentalists will benefit because fuels will be reallocated, the EU will burn more coal (not being able to procure enough LNG to replace piped natural gas from Russia) and volumes refused by the EU will get shipped to India and China. The result will be neutral overall: more pollution in the EU and less in Asia. The only group that could benefit from the war in Ukraine is European socialists. A prolonged recession accompanied by high unemployment, inflation and rationing of electricity/heat will make socialist ideas much more appealing to the impoverished population. We have seen how this works in Europe a few times before. By the way, my hat is off to Kissinger for advising our government not to antagonize China. If the US government keeps declaring their desire to cut off China as a supplier of computer chips and rare-earth metals, China may react just like Russia – restrict those very supplies to the US
One man’s poison is another man’s poison
One man’s poison is another man’s poison
One man’s poison is another man’s poison
The war in Ukraine will have no winners. Estimates from the internet: the EU could lose 1% of GDP or Euro 175 billion (this number is probably low because the cost of hosting/supporting 6-7 million of Ukrainian refuges can be as high as Euro 100billion in the first year of the war) , Russia stands to lose 10% of GDP or USD 150 billion, Ukraine 25% of GDP or USD 50 billion, and the US 0.1% of GDP or USD 20 billion, for a combined total loss of USD 395 billion, excluding the cost of rebuilding Ukrainian infrastructure. Not even the environment/environmentalists will benefit because fuels will be reallocated, the EU will burn more coal (not being able to procure enough LNG to replace piped natural gas from Russia) and volumes refused by the EU will get shipped to India and China. The result will be neutral overall: more pollution in the EU and less in Asia. The only group that could benefit from the war in Ukraine is European socialists. A prolonged recession accompanied by high unemployment, inflation and rationing of electricity/heat will make socialist ideas much more appealing to the impoverished population. We have seen how this works in Europe a few times before. By the way, my hat is off to Kissinger for advising our government not to antagonize China. If the US government keeps declaring their desire to cut off China as a supplier of computer chips and rare-earth metals, China may react just like Russia – restrict those very supplies to the US